Challenges currently facing the North Atlantic Alliance involve not only the increasingly volatile geopolitical situation in the world, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, but also climate change. NATO reports published every year explicitly address this issue.

Case one: in mid-October 2018, hurricane Michael ravaged Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida. It was one of the strongest hurricanes that had ever hit the East Coast of the United States. All (!) buildings in the base were leveled, and the aircraft stationing there, including 17 state-of-the-art F-22s, were damaged. The losses suffered at the time were estimated at 4.7 billion dollars.

Case two: in the first half of March 2025, NATO Exercise Joint Viking was taking place in northern Norway, beyond the Arctic Circle. The aim of the exercise was to hone operational skills in harsh winter conditions, on frozen, snow-covered terrain. However, the weather had alternative plans for that time: there were days where instead of the snow and the ice, the soldiers encountered rain and mud. Some of the planned exercises had to be called off, as the heavy equipment was bogged down in saturated ground.

Both of these events, remote in time and space, resulted from climate change that is occurring all around the globe. There are plenty of similar examples, as such situations are not only becoming more frequent, but they also bring increasingly serious consequences, while counteracting them demands more and more effort and resources. Therefore, it is no surprise that the issue has become a matter of concern for the entire North Atlantic Alliance.

Temperature Is Rising

Climate change is becoming more severe and unpredictable, as confirmed by data obtained from long-term observations. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 was the warmest year since measurements commenced, with the average global temperature 1.45°C higher than in the pre-industrial period. “The changes are driven by multiple factors that alter the global atmospheric circulation system,” explains Magdalena Kuchcik, PhD, head of the Climate Research Department at the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences (IGSO PAS). “This is mainly the result of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We have more energy in the atmosphere, which causes destabilization of all atmospheric phenomena.” Dr. Kuchcik points out that climate change on Earth occurs irregularly. However, the increase in the frequency of extreme phenomena is noticeable all around the globe: “The average minimum air temperature is climbing, the maximum temperature as well, we have prolonged periods of drought, torrential downpours, and a sharp surge in all kinds of extreme atmospheric anomalies.”

This translates into very tangible losses. “We observe that climate change influences more and more aspects of our life, including national security,” says MajGen Marek Wawrzyniak, Chief of the Military Engineering Branch and Deputy Inspector of the Armed Forces at the General Command of the Armed Forces. “In Poland, climate-driven natural disasters have been rising consistently for years.” One such disaster was the flood that hit the southwestern regions of Poland in 2024. At the time, General Wawrzyniak coordinated the activities of engineering troops during Operation Feniks [Phoenix], aimed to provide help and assistance to civilians affected by the flood.

Extreme Phenomena

At the NATO Summit held in Brussels in 2021, the leaders of NATO member states adopted the Climate Change and Security Action Plan. The process initiated at the summit led to the publication, in 2022, of the first NATO report analyzing the way in which climate change impacts the security of the member states. In the following years, two subsequent reports were published, indicating the challenges their armed forces are already facing.

The 2022 NATO report identified as many as 10 issues that already pose a challenge for the armed forces of the member states due to climate change. These include hazards caused by extreme weather events. On the one hand, there are extreme heat waves that have hit Western Europe and the USA, prolonged droughts that negatively affect agriculture (which can consequently cause problems with access to food, making it a food security issue), but also lead to devastating wildfires in vast regions of the Mediterranean and North America. On the other hand, climate change results in heavy, torrential rains that lead to inundations and catastrophic floods, which in recent years have hit, among others, Central Europe (including Poland), the Western Balkans and Spain.

Natural disasters directly affect the security of NATO member states. They hit military infrastructure, damaging bases and equipment (for example, recurring destruction of American military bases on the East Coast of the USA by hurricanes, which, due to climate change, are becoming increasingly intense, and the damage they cause is more extensive). One of the consequences of the wildfires that hit central Greece in July 2023, was the detonation of ammunition depots located at the Nea Anchialos Air Base.

Given the urgency of the issue, doctrinal documents adapted to individual circumstances have been prepared by the largest armies of the Alliance, including the American, British or German army. In Poland, the National Strategy for Preparing the Armed Forces for Climate Change was published at the beginning of 2024. The reason for this step was that “climate change negatively impacts the environment, causing its degradation, and thus increasing the risk of losing stability and security in the functioning of the state,” points out BrigGen Artur Dębczak, Deputy Chief of the Inspectorate for Armed Forces Support and chairman of the team that developed the Polish strategy.

How Do We Fight It?

In response to the increasing number of extreme weather events, equipment maintenance costs and failure rates are rising. “One of the key challenges of the future will undoubtedly be extreme weather events, which will compel the military to appropriately adapt their equipment, infrastructure and revise the method of training personnel. The procurement of next-generation armament and equipment will have to go hand in hand with the ability to use it differently in new operational conditions caused by climate change,” emphasizes BrigGen Artur Dębczak.

The general also draws attention to another important issue: “We have to expect a change in the operational requirements for the use of the armed forces and an expansion in the scope of their tasks, including supporting society.” The change is already noticeable in the intensive development of cooperation between military and civilian institutions when tackling the aftermath of natural disasters. “While crisis response is not the primary task of the army, it is very often engaged in this area of activity,” says MajGen Marek Wawrzyniak. “Due to the increasing number of crisis situations caused by climate change, we have to be prepared. It’s crucial to work on improving rapid response procedures, as well as effective cooperation between the military and civil services in crisis situations.”

The 2024 NATO report highlights another aspect that is important for the military: “The threats associated with climate change can lead to higher costs of servicing and repairing equipment, endanger the safety of military personnel, and consequently affect military effectiveness and readiness.” As a result, NATO member states are advised to establish specialized organizations, operating independently of the military, whose main task would be to mitigate the consequences of natural disasters. The idea behind it is to enable soldiers to concentrate on their most important task – deterrence and national defense. In fact, a similar structure already exists in Poland in the form of the Territorial Defense Forces (TDF), commanded by BrigGen Krzysztof Stańczyk, who also serves as the Chief of the Crisis Management Center at the Ministry of National Defense. “TDF’s mission is to support local communities and defend permanent areas of responsibility, but also to undertake action in crisis situations,” he explains.

A good example of their efficiency was the above-mentioned Operation Feniks, commanded by Gen Stańczyk. In addition to TDF troops, soldiers from operational units and officer cadets were also involved in the operation. “We cooperated with other services and the civilian administration,” says the general. “TDF troops are always close to local communities. When there is a problem, we are usually the first ones to arrive on the scene. However, our activity is reinforced by others. We don’t have heavy equipment like backhoe loaders or dump trucks, so the engineering troops support us with this kind of machinery. This synergy of all units working together was very effective and yielded excellent results during Operation Feniks,” concludes Gen Stańczyk.

Another issue is that the changing climate directly affects the conditions in which soldiers will have to operate. Magdalena Kuchcik, PhD, points out that if the climate continues to warm, it may become necessary, for example, to prepare uniforms adapted to new conditions: “It may be problematic to adjust the thermal insulation of uniforms to higher temperatures in which soldiers will have to work. They will have to be made of modern fabrics that allow thermoregulation and efficient heat release,” she explains.

Not Only Threats

Natural disasters are one issue, but climate change also leads to rising sea levels. This fact is of enormous importance to countries with significant maritime potential, such as Great Britain or the USA. According to more pessimistic estimates, the sea levels might rise by 60 to even 150 cm by 2100. In the long term, this will pose an escalating threat to coastal infrastructure, including ports.

Increasing temperatures also influence military infrastructure in the Arctic, where changes are occurring more rapidly. Scandinavian countries, as well as Canada and the USA, which have military installations in the far north, could face rapid deterioration of road surfaces and airstrips, while the infrastructure built on permafrost might start sinking into the ground due to thawing. Last year’s NATO report cites Finland as an example state that is already facing difficulties regarding military infrastructure, particularly at the Rovajärvi artillery practice range.

Nevertheless, climate change also creates new, previously unavailable opportunities. Retreating ice caps might, for example, lead to the opening of shipping lanes and transport routes in the Far North, which until now have been inaccessible for most of the year. In the future, they could significantly reduce the time of transporting goods between Asia and Europe.

Milder weather conditions in the Far North also facilitate access to natural resources in the Arctic. It is estimated that there are significant deposits of oil, natural gas and rare minerals in the region, which is already raising the geopolitical importance of these territories. Russia and China, strategic rivals of the Alliance, are also increasingly interested in the Arctic, which poses a threat to collective security not only on NATO’s eastern flank but also in the Arctic.

New Geopolitical Hotspots

The 2024 NATO report also highlights the issue of political instability in the immediate vicinity of the Alliance. It points out that climate change may increase the amount of conflicts and violence, particularly in more vulnerable regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa. The consequences of climate change are also serious there, but their connection to the challenges facing NATO’s armed forces is indirect, as it results from a chain of interconnected events. Extreme droughts may lead to hunger and unrest in countries located in the region, which in turn may enable radical groups to gain influence or seize power.

The result of such a chain of events might be the emergence of another geopolitical hotspot. In the long-term perspective, it could lead to a wave of migration, with allied states finding themselves on the front line of migration corridors. Therefore, natural disasters triggered by climate change in distant regions may ultimately translate into a direct threat to the security of a NATO member states. Virtually all countries along NATO’s southern flank, and Poland as well, are struggling with similar problems.

A Lot to Be Done

Climate change affects most of the already existing threats. Therefore, it has been considered crucial to mitigate both the consequences and climate change itself. Emphasis is put on the necessity to raise awareness on the impact of climate change on security, both in the armed forces and across society at large. It is also considered important to adapt military capabilities and social resilience to climate-related challenges, which will in turn increase the effectiveness of the armed forces and enable them to operate under the changing conditions.

The Polish Armed Forces are also aware of the situation: “The Inspectorate for Armed Forces Support undertakes various activities in connection with climate change and its impact on security,” says BrigGen Artur Dębczak. “We are raising environmental awareness, and modifying training programs to better prepare military units, equipment and personnel to execute tasks in extreme weather conditions, repair damaged infrastructure, restore mobility and provide support to civilians,” he adds.

As climate change becomes more and more apparent, it is important to further strengthen the cooperation between military and civilian institutions, which will, in turn, make crisis response more effective. Drawing on the experience gained during Operation Feniks, MajGen Marek Wawrzyniak points out that “the key element is to integrate the crisis management system and develop cooperation with the civilian administration – organize joint trainings and exercises, consolidate joint procedures – streamline everything that is part of the national crisis response system, not just combat strength.” The general also emphasizes it is crucial to expand the catalogue of dual-use equipment: “I am mainly thinking about engineering equipment, such as folding bridges, which are normally used as crossings for heavy military equipment, but could also be deployed in crisis situations as an element ensuring traffic safety and security of individual localities. Such bridges were used during cleanup after last year’s flood, for example in Głuchołazy,” says MajGen Wawrzyniak. He also mentions reconnaissance drones, which are employed in civilian applications and emergency situations to locate missing persons or monitor the condition of flooded areas, as well as vehicles, boats, and heavy machinery like excavators, graders and scrapers – equipment which can be used for military purposes, but also to remove the consequences of natural disasters.

There are also areas that can be enhanced. “We don’t have a common platform to exchange information between all services and non-military systems,” points out BrigGen Krzysztof Stańczyk. He explains that Operation Feniks provided inspiration for new solutions: “We believe that every TDF brigade should have one or two containers stocked with necessary equipment, such as power generators, Starlinks, which are useful when there’s no power, lighting masts, wheelbarrows, rain boots, and brooms – so that military logistics units wouldn’t have to purchase all of these items at the last minute.” Keeping these kind of stockpiles would ensure that everything necessary is readily available in the event of a crisis.

Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a specialized advisory body of the United Nations, are alarming, as they indicate that climate change is progressing and will increasingly impact global security in the upcoming years. It will also pose a real challenge for combat readiness of armed forces around the world. As an international organization, NATO has numerous military and civilian tools at its disposal to support the efforts of individual member states in fighting natural disasters resulting from climate change. Nevertheless, it already seems essential to strengthen civilian-military cooperation and expand civilian crisis response capabilities, which was clearly confirmed by the experience of Operation Feniks. It is impossible to predict the next natural disaster, but it is definitely advisable to be prepared for it.